GAO Study: Medicaid: Efforts to Identify, Predict, or Manage High-Expenditure Beneficiaries

Why GAO Did This Study

“Medicaid, a joint federal-state health care financing program, is one of the nation’s largest sources of health care coverage for low-income and medically needy individuals. A 2016 report published by the National Governors Association noted that high-expenditure Medicaid beneficiaries typically have poorly managed chronic conditions and a host of unmet social needs that result in potentially preventable use of costly services, such as emergency department visits. The report also noted that identifying and better managing those beneficiaries are key to reducing costs and improving outcomes.”

“GAO was asked to examine state and federal efforts to manage costs and improve care coordination for high-expenditure Medicaid beneficiaries. This report describes (1) approaches selected states used to identify or predict high-expenditure Medicaid beneficiaries; (2) strategies selected states used to manage beneficiaries’ health care costs while ensuring quality of care; and (3) resources CMS provided to states to help them identify, predict, or better manage high-expenditure beneficiaries.”

What GAO Found

“GAO previously reported that in fiscal years 2009 through 2011, the most expensive 5 percent of Medicaid beneficiaries accounted for nearly half of the expenditures for all beneficiaries; others have also found that a small percentage of beneficiaries account for a disproportionately large share of Medicaid program expenditures. These high-expenditure beneficiaries are an extremely diverse population with varying needs. GAO found that the seven selected states identified or predicted high-expenditure Medicaid beneficiaries using statistics and other approaches. For example, states used risk scores, which estimate an individual beneficiary’s expected health care expenditures relative to the average expenditures for beneficiaries in the group. Other approaches included examining service utilization data to identify statistical outliers and using diagnoses, service utilization and claims expenditure thresholds, or clinical judgment to identify or predict high-expenditure beneficiaries.” Access the full 27-page report here.

Source: Medicaid: Efforts to Identify, Predict, or Manage High-Expenditure Beneficiaries – September 12, 2019. GAO.



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